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Wanted: accurate 5-day forecast
By
2009-11-05 08:59:00
Intelligencer Journal
Lancaster New Era


TO THE EDITORS:

I frequently see illustrations allegedly revealing how our ancestors looked and lived tens of millions of years ago, and all this detail is often deduced from one or several bones, or fragments of such.



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clanker
QUOTE (Lancaster Online @ Nov 5 2009, 08:59 AM) *
Post your thoughts and comments about this article.



Haha. I don't think anthropologists are in the predicting business. I'm sure meteorologists are trying hard to accurately predict weather and they've come a long way over the years, but it takes a huge amount of compiled data to predict weather trends. Those results can easily be affected by other unpredictable factors.
grieker
Well Cliffy, if you want an accurate forecast, you could move to:

Arizona

Greenland

Antartica

Forecasts are uncommonly accurate there.
notveryhow
Before someone runs with this and uses the innaccuracy of 5 day forecasts to cast doubt on anthropogenic global warming, let me say that there is a vast difference between forecasting weather and forecasting climate.

For example, there are many variables in the short-term (weather) forecast that can have a major effect on whether it will rain on Sunday. But I can say with a very high degree of accuracy that it will rain sometime in the next 30 days, because over the longer term the variables all balance out.

Thus, with the oceans and atmosphere warming and glaciers melting, and greenhouse gases (notably CO2) being produced and accumulating at measurable rates, it is possible with a very high degree of accuracy to predict that the planet will warm, and will warm at an accelerating rate.
runutz
Life is all rainbows and unicorns. But beware the sh*tstorm; soon come, mon.
BuffaloBill
QUOTE (notveryhow @ Nov 5 2009, 09:42 AM) *
Thus, with the oceans and atmosphere warming and glaciers melting, and greenhouse gases (notably CO2) being produced and accumulating at measurable rates, it is possible with a very high degree of accuracy to predict that the planet will warm, and will warm at an accelerating rate...

... because over the longer term the variables all balance out.
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solitary
I predict over the next five days, with 100% certainty that there will be alternating periods of light and dark, occurring at fairly consistent intervals of each.
There ya go, next five days guaranteed or double your money back.
notveryhow
QUOTE (BuffaloBill @ Nov 5 2009, 11:32 AM) *
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El Nino and La Nina come and then they're gone (leaving nothing but a hamper full of laundry and a sink full of dishes tongue.gif ) The North Atlantic Oscillation oscillates.

I'm not talking about periods of millions of years, when continental drift changes the position of landmasses and ocean currents adapt accordingly. Or wobbles in the Earths rotation. I refer to shorter term cycles and their effect over decades or centuries. Temperatures and precipitation on any giver day or week or year vary, but a number of years data added together yield an average. The average has the 'noise' suppressed.
localyokel123
Yeah! Why don't the paleontologists and anthropologists start doing the weather? Anyway! And they should do the traffic reports, too, since they are such smarty pants. Except, we can't put Rosa Duarte out of job, she's the hottest one on our local station. Oh and I want a pony! And bacon. Mmmmmm bacon!
solitary
Who can argue with bacon?
daironman
QUOTE (solitary @ Nov 5 2009, 12:56 PM) *
I predict over the next five days, with 100% certainty that there will be alternating periods of light and dark, occurring at fairly consistent intervals of each.
There ya go, next five days guaranteed or double your money back.



Good one!!
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