[Tenacious B]

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Excerpts from the article in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette:

Now that the election is over and the issue of who will handle the economy for the next four years has been decided, here is a little secret: It really didn't matter who won.

To be sure, some of the best gains may be past, now that companies are going to have to start hiring and potentially paying workers more to lure and keep talent. Profit margins already have started to fall from their early year peaks, but that's after a hefty three-year ride.

What this all means is that while President Bush may reap the benefits and acclaim for the economy's performance come 2008, he will not have done that much to create it. Businesses decide when to spend, when to hire and when to raise wages based not on what is happening on Capitol Hill or in the White House but what is happening in Peoria, Ill., Pittsburgh and Portland, Ore., and for that matter, in Beijing, London, Moscow and New Delhi.

If there is money to be made and sales to be had, businesses will expand and grow until the point at which they, and consumers, have overdone it, forcing everyone to pull back and pushing the economy back into recession. It has been thus since the Industrial Revolution, and it will be thus amid the coming revolution in nanotechnology, biotechnology and all other things technology.

Indeed, woe be unto the President who attempts to meddle too much into the affairs of the economy.

President Carter sought to intervene in a different manner in 1980, invoking emergency powers to force the Federal Reserve to restrict the availability of credit. The move, aimed at clamping down on runaway inflation and interest rates, worked too well. It cut off lending and pushed the economy into its first, albeit, brief recession in 1980, which after a short rally, lapsed back into a deep recession a year and half later.

Very Kerryesque in thinking.

In the short run, "presidents have little effect on the economy except to extent that there is good steady leadership at the Federal Reserve and good, steady leadership at the Treasury," observes Richard Marston, a finance and economics professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School.

It also was a preview of what Bush and the Republicans will crow about in 2008, following what is likely to be a nice four-year stretch of job and economic growth.

Democrats can only wince and wish that challenger John F. Kerry got elected. Then he, much like Al Gore did in 2000 after the eight-year stretch of growth under Clinton that actually started under President Bush's father, could have claimed to have fixed the nation's economic ills.

But remember this: No matter who won, the credit for the coming period of better economic times should go to the people most responsible: business owners and workers.

This post has been edited by Buck Jackson: 09 November 2004 - 02:15 PM

[darleneann]

Talk to you in 4 years, Buck.

[Hawkeye]

Perhaps those who envision a rosy future economic scenario might suggest useful actions for private investors and small and large business for weathering the falling dollar and the certain devaluation of that now risky currency in the next six to eight month? As of today, one Eruo costs one dollar and thirty cents of good ole' US dollars. Twenty months ago the same Euro cost only eighty-six cents in good ole' US dollars. Any good and practical ideas will be most welcome.

Some suspect that the good ole' US dollar will be lucky to buy one Eruo for $1.40 in a few weeks.

For more details on the dollar's sad current status among the currencies of the world, see recent issues of the FINANCIAL TIMES or just about any reasonably savvy financial journal or even alert daily newspapers. Happy investing in what's left of 2004 and the coming 2005.

[usedmeat]

I must travel in the wrong circle. Most I know are being forced to work mandatory overtime because the employer isn't hiring. They aren't hireing because they don't want to have to pay unemployment when things slow down and they have to make layoffs. But that's a good thing because their share of health insurance payments are going up. But then most of my friends work in the manufacturing sector, not the parasite industries that feed off of them.

I had to laugh reading the news article about the layoffs at Armstrong and the admonition that today's worker has to be well educated to secure a job. Run that by an unemployed areospace worker (rocket scientist) an see what happens. Just don't do it when they are drinking a glass of milk.

[dimples]

I think I travel in the wrong circle too Usedmeat. In the last four years, I lost my good paying job at a non-profit organization because Geo. Bush's administration cut our funding. Which now means I have to pay for my own health care on a job that pays me $6 an hour less than my previous job. Not to mention the area in which I live is a high cost of living area, so I can't afford expendable income anymore. All my income is for rent, food, and basic survival necessities, luckily I could sell my car and still get back and forth to work.

I didn't vote for this crap the first time, and I didn't vote for it the second time, I'm what Sally would call a disgruntled Liberal. Although I don't think I'm liberal at all. My boyfriend is a self-employed commerical painter, right now he's picking up work with our friend who owns his own landscaping business. Thank god he has military retirement coming in or else we wouldn't be able to make the rent. If the economy is picking up, it must be picking up in other areas of the country, because it sure isn't picking up here.

[Tenacious B]

They aren't hireing because they don't want to have to pay unemployment when things slow down and they have to make layoffs.

This is not true. Businesses do not pay unemployment. Unemployment is paid out of a state unemployment fund from business contributions. Rates are determined by the job sic code and rate of pay. An employers rate will only go up if they have a protracted history of hiring and laying off. Like auto insurance, your premium goes up if you have multiple claims. It actually takes a lot of UI claims to raise your contribution rate.

I lost my good paying job at a non-profit organization

Good paying job at a non-profit organization? There is no such thing.

y boyfriend is a self-employed commerical painter, right now he's picking up work with our friend who owns his own landscaping business.

What part of the country do you live in? As a member of a regional builders association there is more construction and building related work than can be delivered in our area. If you want a commercial paint job around here better book it now. It is going to take at least six months to get it done because they are too busy.

[dimples]

Buck,

I made good money at the non-profit, whether you want to believe it or not. I had good benefits there, health insurance, public transportation subsidy, retirement, now I have zilcho because I had to go and work for a temp agency to find something and yes, there are benefits through the company, I can't afford them on the $6 an hour pay cut I had to take to work for them.

Hopefully once the hiring freeze lifts at the company I'm temping for, they will hire me permanently and then I will get my hourly rate back to where it was before I was laid off and get my benefits back as well.

What part of the country do you live in?

If you read at all Buck you will see under my name, that I live in Maryland (MD). While there is building going on, he's not a member of a "trade association" better known as Union so the work is a little harder to come by. Some people don't like "trade associations" myself and my boyfriend are those kind of people. He does good work for a fair price, while it's true that he can't compete with a bigger company, he is a Vet and according to the SBA that should account for something.

[Daisy Lee Myers]

I think I travel in the wrong circle too Usedmeat.  In the last four years, I lost my good paying job at a non-profit organization because Geo. Bush's administration cut our funding.  Which now means I have to pay for my own health care on a job that pays me $6 an hour less than my previous job.  Not to mention the area in which I live is a high cost of living area, so I can't afford expendable income anymore.  All my income is for rent, food, and basic survival necessities, luckily I could sell my car and still get back and forth to work. 

I didn't vote for this crap the first time, and I didn't vote for it the second time, I'm what Sally would call a disgruntled Liberal.  Although I don't think I'm liberal at all.  My boyfriend is a self-employed commerical painter, right now he's picking up work with our friend who owns his own landscaping business.  Thank god he has military retirement coming in or else we wouldn't be able to make the rent.  If the economy is picking up, it must be picking up in other areas of the country, because it sure isn't picking up here.

dimples:

most states are offering "forgiveness" loans in teaching and nursing.

get info..

by checking out the teacher/nurses web sites. Maryland NURSES' ASSOCIATION and Maryland TEACHER'S ASSOC TOO.

i want to know how everyone is going to afford to heat their homes this winter...

bottom line..
it is VERY expensive to live for everyone!


GOOD LUCK

[dimples]

Sorry Daisy, I have a lot respect for nurses, but I could never be one. I worked in law enforcement for 8 years before I went to the non-profit and I can't stand to look at blood and gore anymore.

[Kate]

i want to know how everyone is going to afford to heat their homes this winter...

we're not - we're all coming to Miami Beach. Break out the sofa bed Daisy!

[GeezUS]

In the last four years, I lost my good paying job at a non-profit organization because Geo. Bush's administration cut our funding.

There shouldn't be any good paying jobs at "non-profit" organizations. If there are good paying jobs at "non-profits" then they should be treated like regular businesses and not hide behind the tax advantage status of "non-profit."

[Daisy Lee Myers]

There shouldn't be any good paying jobs at "non-profit" organizations. If there are good paying jobs at "non-profits".....

can you say: "united way?"

This post has been edited by Daisy Lee Myers: 10 November 2004 - 09:16 PM

[Tenacious B]

he's not a member of a "trade association" better known as Union so the work is a little harder to come by. Some people don't like "trade associations" myself and my boyfriend are those kind of people. He does good work for a fair price, while it's true that he can't compete with a bigger company

The builders association and other "trade associations" are not unions and typically anti-union. A Chamber of Commerce is a trade association. They are organized to help businesses and provide resources for its members, especially the small independent guy. Larger businesses usually stay away from associations. My sister lives in the Laurel area. I will see if she can come up with a contact for an association there and I will forward it to you. I can assure you that membership would only help.